But before I get into my new take, just for the sake of completeness, here are the basic thoughts being tossed around already.  First the camp that insists LeBron has to leave:

• LeBron has to leave because he is friends with Jay-Z who owns an infinitesimal piece of the New Jersey Nets
• The New Jersey Nets are moving to Brooklyn and LeBron has to go help kick off the new era of the franchise
• The Nets traded Richard Jefferson, meaning they are readying themselves for LeBron
• There are escalators in LeBron’s Nike contract which pay him more if he is in a major market like NYC

Then the other side is basically:

• LeBron likes his hometown
• Nobody can give LeBron a bigger NBA contract than Cleveland
• LeBron reached the finals in Cleveland
• Terry Pluto’s brilliant argument that says you never know where the talent is going to be centered a year from now let alone two years from now
• LeBron has stated that he wants to bring a parade to Cleveland because he knows we are suffering as sports fans (this interview answer is one that the national media NEVER mentions because it doesn’t fit their pre-determined storyline that Cleveland doesn’t deserve LeBron James)

Well, I have a new take.  Everyone was so quick to point out that the Richard Jefferson trade on draft night was definitely designed at getting LeBron to the Nets in two years.  Well, you know which team is gearing up to have a ton of cap space when LeBron’s contract year comes around?

THE CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

As of this writing, the Cavaliers don’t have a single player under contract for more than LeBron’s two year deal.  When next season starts the Cavs might have two players under contract for longer than LeBron and those will probably amount to somewhere in the $10-12 million dollar range COMBINED with Daniel Gibson and Delonte West.  That’s it.  Maybe some draft picks will end up with deals that range longer than LeBron’s two years remaining.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas and his nearly $11 million comes off.  Ben Wallace’s almost $15 million comes off.  In addition, LeBron’s salary comes off.  And guess what else.  Because LeBron is such an influential guy, the market is going to be flooded with free agents.  Dwayne Wade followed LeBron’s lead and only signed a five year deal when he was up for his first free agent contract.  Chris Bosh also followed LeBron’s lead in that department.

You will also remember that LeBron really did lead the charge on the 5-year deals at that time.  This means that LeBron has influence.  Who’s to say that LeBron wouldn’t be able to recruit some guys to come in and play with him in two years?  Could you imagine Dwayne Wade and/or Chris Bosh playing alongside LeBron?  The bottom line is that these types of situations can only occur where tons of cap space exists.

As long as Cleveland doesn’t screw this up and load up the roster with too much salary, the Cavs will have $40 million dropping off the cap in order to pull in top talent along with LeBron in his contract year.  Think about what the Clippers just did to try and keep Elton Brand in LA.

I am not guaranteeing that this will happen, but it is JUST as likely as all the presumed OBVIOUS scenarios that get bandied about by the national press when they are looking to pull the greatest sports figure in Cleveland history out of this town.

Mike Brown, on the other hand, is on record as saying that he wouldn’t hire any offensive coaching help after last season.  If anyone needed an offensive coordinator after last season, it was Mike Brown.  He didn’t want there to be any confusion on the team with too many voices making noise from the sidelines.  Seriously.  That’s what he said.  I would think that the Cavs would be better off with a little bit of confusion about who is talking rather than the widespread general confusion with which they run their offensive “sets” on a nightly basis.  But what do I know?

So, what were Danny Ferry and Dan Gilbert thinking?  None of this makes any sense to me.  The problems with the Cavaliers from a coaching standpoint have been well-known since Mike Brown got here and yet none of them have been addressed.

1. Mike Brown’s offense is confusing, inconsistent, repetitive and doesn’t lead to as many high percentage shots as a good offense should.
2. At the ends of quarters, halfs, games and on important inbounds plays the plan usually consists of getting LeBron the ball and watching him dribble and probably shoot a fade-away jumper.
3. Mike Brown does not develop young talent.  Daniel Gibson had to force his way into the lineup.  And even still, Gibson has done nothing but perform and Mike Brown continues to start Larry Hughes and Sasha Pavlovic in front of him.
4. Mike Brown’s player rotations are continually mind-boggling.  He can have guys start who disappear completely before the game is over.  Drew Gooden and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are usually the most likely candidates for disappearance.  But the weird thing is how Ira Newble or Damon Jones can show up and play for two weeks, not play too badly and then disappear completely for two months.  This also contributes to number three and specifically Shannon Brown who got some playing time, seemed to be getting comfortable and then had “DNP – Coach’s Decision” next to his name in the box score for two months without warning or explanation.
5. The 3rd quarter has been, and continues to be a HUGE problem for the Cavs.  They come out flat, they give up leads, the fall further into deficit.  Whatever.  It has been ongoing for as long as Mike Brown has been in Cleveland.

Now, I can’t take anything away from Mike Brown’s commitment to defense, but these other things are real bona fide problems with Mike Brown as a coach that he hasn’t been able to rectify.  Maybe I overstate the negatives, but I can’t help but feel like this team would do better with someone who was a complete master of the game.  At this rate and with the numbered problems above, I still view Mike Brown as a defensive specialist who hasn’t figured out his weaknesses and how, as leader of the team in the East with arguably the most talented player in the NBA, to overcome those weaknesses.

Maybe this is a result of my fears that LeBron is going to leave this town and this team at the end of his contract if they don’t win a championship.  I feel like that fear is relatively tangible and it feels too real to be fake.  With those stakes in mind it confuses me to think that Danny Ferry and Dan Gilbert think that Mike Brown gives the Cavaliers their best chance to protect their market value by winning a championship and subsequently keeping LeBron here.

I sure hope they are right.